The difficult union between effectiveness and efficiency of the forecasting models in the corporate crisis prediction: a comparative analysis.

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The prediction of company difficulties is an extremely important issue since a company bankruptcy can have serious repercussions on a vast number of operators (managers, professionals, creditors, auditing companies, banks, stock exchange operators, shareholders, the company itself, etc.). This is why most of the recent studies have been particularly aimed at increasing the reliability of the forecasting models. The refining process is frequently coupled with a great deal of complexity especially in the application of instruments in both professional and managerial fields. The high cost of some of the models makes these instruments exclusive but, at the same time, hardly usable by smaller firms/users. These considerations should not be underestimated since they could affect, in crucial way, the effective usability of the forecasting models. Although some instruments are characterized by high-precision diagnostics, they were found to be hardly usable: this difficulty depends on the economic organizational sacrifice that follows its use. This study is aimed at providing a contribution to the existing literature in this field through a series of evaluations of the effectiveness and the organizational and economic efficiency of forecasting models. That being stated, the present work aims to compare some of the most relevant forecasting models to predict corporate crisis developed both in national and international literature in relation to two specific parameter classes: effectiveness and efficiency.

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